[Elite] Under 242.5 (-105) | WinProb: 94.6% — Lost

Manny's Variety Picks published Under 242.5 (-105) at -105 on 2026-03-25 in NBA. The selection was locked before the event started and graded against official results: it lost, settling -1.50 units.

The record

Selection

Under 242.5 (-105)

Event

Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Price published at

-105

Market open → close

-105 → -175

Closing line value

+12.4 percentage points

Result

lost

Profit / loss

-1.50 units

Published

2026-03-25

Graded

2026-03-28

What the price required

At -105, this selection had to win 51.2% of the time simply to break even — that is what the price itself demanded, before any view about the event.

What the market did afterwards

This selection was taken at -105 and the market closed at -175, a closing line value of +12.4 percentage points. Closing line value measures whether the price beaten was better than the one the market settled on; it is the strongest available leading indicator that a model is pricing something the market had not yet.

How this report was produced

A sport-specific model simulates the event to a win probability, which is compared with the live market price; the selection is locked before the event starts and graded against official final data. Full method on the methodology page.

The full record

This report is one entry in a permanent public ledger — winning and losing alike, nothing removed after the fact. Browse the complete graded record, the report archive, or NBA coverage on the NBA page.