Manny's Variety Picks

Results & Graded Performance

Performance by sport and by market, drawn from the same permanent record as the public ledger. Every figure traces back to individual graded picks rather than to a summary maintained by hand.

Verified performance record

Every figure below is computed from the same permanent public ledger, split by the methodology that produced it. Records are shown with their full denominator and the break-even the prices actually required — a win rate on its own says nothing about whether a bet was worth making.

Where the model has beaten the price

  • MLB Quality Parlay — Value Current methodology

    MLB Quality Parlay — Value went 28-34 (45.2%) across 62 graded selections from 2026-06-10 to 2026-08-20, +40.51 units at +129.63% ROI. The prices taken required 24.5% to break even. Methodology: quality-bar-v1.

    Record
    28-34 (45.2%)
    Graded selections
    62
    Period
    2026-06-10 to 2026-08-20
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    24.5%
    Margin over break-even
    +20.6 points
    Units
    +40.51
    Return on stake
    +129.63%
    Methodology
    quality-bar-v1

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB Quality Parlay — Lotto Current methodology

    MLB Quality Parlay — Lotto went 20-40 (33.3%) across 60 graded selections from 2026-06-12 to 2026-08-20, +91.17 units at +303.88% ROI. The prices taken required 9.7% to break even. Methodology: quality-bar-v1.

    Record
    20-40 (33.3%)
    Graded selections
    60
    Period
    2026-06-12 to 2026-08-20
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    9.7%
    Margin over break-even
    +23.6 points
    Units
    +91.17
    Return on stake
    +303.88%
    Methodology
    quality-bar-v1

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB Quality Parlay — Safe Current methodology

    MLB Quality Parlay — Safe went 29-25 (53.7%) across 54 graded selections from 2026-06-10 to 2026-08-20, +5.96 units at +21.69% ROI. The prices taken required 43.9% to break even. Methodology: quality-bar-v1.

    Record
    29-25 (53.7%)
    Graded selections
    54
    Period
    2026-06-10 to 2026-08-20
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    43.9%
    Margin over break-even
    +9.8 points
    Units
    +5.96
    Return on stake
    +21.69%
    Methodology
    quality-bar-v1

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB YRFI Historical methodology

    MLB YRFI went 43-30 (58.9%) across 73 graded selections from 2026-05-06 to 2026-08-04, +4.16 units at +7.77% ROI. The prices taken required 54.8% to break even. Methodology: E1_pre_dated_selector.

    Record
    43-30 (58.9%)
    Graded selections
    73
    Period
    2026-05-06 to 2026-08-04
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    54.8%
    Margin over break-even
    +4.1 points
    Units
    +4.16
    Return on stake
    +7.77%
    Methodology
    E1_pre_dated_selector

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB Moneyline Historical methodology

    MLB Moneyline went 70-54-2 (56.5%) across 126 graded selections from 2026-04-12 to 2026-08-04, +10.96 units at +7.05% ROI. The prices taken required 54.6% to break even. Methodology: E1_pre_ladder.

    Record
    70-54-2 (56.5%)
    Graded selections
    126
    Period
    2026-04-12 to 2026-08-04
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    54.6%
    Margin over break-even
    +1.8 points
    Units
    +10.96
    Return on stake
    +7.05%
    Methodology
    E1_pre_ladder

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB Play of the Night Historical methodology

    MLB Play of the Night went 22-15-1 (59.5%) across 38 graded selections from 2026-04-18 to 2026-08-04, +2.44 units at +5.91% ROI. The prices taken required 56.2% to break even. Methodology: E1_pre_dated_selector.

    Record
    22-15-1 (59.5%)
    Graded selections
    38
    Period
    2026-04-18 to 2026-08-04
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    56.2%
    Margin over break-even
    +3.3 points
    Units
    +2.44
    Return on stake
    +5.91%
    Methodology
    E1_pre_dated_selector

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB Total Historical methodology

    MLB Total went 36-29-6 (55.4%) across 71 graded selections from 2026-04-12 to 2026-08-04, +0.44 units at +0.87% ROI. The prices taken required 51.8% to break even. Methodology: E1_pre_dated_selector.

    Record
    36-29-6 (55.4%)
    Graded selections
    71
    Period
    2026-04-12 to 2026-08-04
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    51.8%
    Margin over break-even
    +3.6 points
    Units
    +0.44
    Return on stake
    +0.87%
    Methodology
    E1_pre_dated_selector

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB Moneyline of the Day Current methodology

    MLB Moneyline of the Day went 34-20-1 (63%) across 55 graded selections from 2026-06-02 to 2026-08-04, +0.15 units at +0.27% ROI. The prices taken required 61% to break even. Methodology: E1_single_era.

    Record
    34-20-1 (63%)
    Graded selections
    55
    Period
    2026-06-02 to 2026-08-04
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    61%
    Margin over break-even
    +2 points
    Units
    +0.15
    Return on stake
    +0.27%
    Methodology
    E1_single_era

    See every graded selection behind this record

Where it has not

Published with the same denominator as everything above. A record that only shows its winners is not a record.

  • MLB Moneyline (second slot) Published result

    MLB Moneyline (second slot) went 54-40 (57.4%) across 94 graded selections from 2026-04-15 to 2026-08-20, +0.06 units at +0.06% ROI. The prices taken required 57.8% to break even. Methodology: E1_single_era.

    Record
    54-40 (57.4%)
    Graded selections
    94
    Period
    2026-04-15 to 2026-08-20
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    57.8%
    Margin over break-even
    -0.3 points
    Units
    +0.06
    Return on stake
    +0.06%
    Methodology
    E1_single_era

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB NRFI Published result

    MLB NRFI went 22-24 (47.8%) across 46 graded selections from 2026-05-06 to 2026-07-09, -3.97 units at -10.04% ROI. The prices taken required 53.3% to break even. Methodology: E1_single_era.

    Record
    22-24 (47.8%)
    Graded selections
    46
    Period
    2026-05-06 to 2026-07-09
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    53.3%
    Margin over break-even
    -5.5 points
    Units
    -3.97
    Return on stake
    -10.04%
    Methodology
    E1_single_era

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB Moneyline Published result

    MLB Moneyline went 13-20 (39.4%) across 33 graded selections from 2026-08-05 to 2026-08-14, -9.25 units at -25.71% ROI. The prices taken required 53.1% to break even. Methodology: ml_ladder_v1_2026_08_05.

    Record
    13-20 (39.4%)
    Graded selections
    33
    Period
    2026-08-05 to 2026-08-14
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    53.1%
    Margin over break-even
    -13.7 points
    Units
    -9.25
    Return on stake
    -25.71%
    Methodology
    ml_ladder_v1_2026_08_05

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB Run Line Published result

    MLB Run Line went 8-8 (50%) across 16 graded selections from 2026-08-05 to 2026-08-20, -3.35 units at -20.97% ROI. The prices taken required 64.1% to break even. Methodology: rlod_v1_2026_08_05.

    Record
    8-8 (50%)
    Graded selections
    16
    Period
    2026-08-05 to 2026-08-20
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    64.1%
    Margin over break-even
    -14.1 points
    Units
    -3.35
    Return on stake
    -20.97%
    Methodology
    rlod_v1_2026_08_05

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  • MLB Run Line Published result

    MLB Run Line went 8-7 (53.3%) across 15 graded selections from 2026-04-16 to 2026-05-14, -3.25 units at -17.08% ROI. The prices taken required 59.8% to break even. Methodology: E1_pre_selector.

    Record
    8-7 (53.3%)
    Graded selections
    15
    Period
    2026-04-16 to 2026-05-14
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    59.8%
    Margin over break-even
    -6.5 points
    Units
    -3.25
    Return on stake
    -17.08%
    Methodology
    E1_pre_selector

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB Play of the Night Published result

    MLB Play of the Night went 6-6 (50%) across 12 graded selections from 2026-08-06 to 2026-08-17, -1.13 units at -11.29% ROI. The prices taken required 54.5% to break even. Methodology: pon_strict_ml_v1.

    Record
    6-6 (50%)
    Graded selections
    12
    Period
    2026-08-06 to 2026-08-17
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    54.5%
    Margin over break-even
    -4.5 points
    Units
    -1.13
    Return on stake
    -11.29%
    Methodology
    pon_strict_ml_v1

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB YRFI Published result

    MLB YRFI went 2-2 (50%) across 4 graded selections from 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-19, -0.32 units at -9.83% ROI. The prices taken required 59% to break even. Methodology: yrfi_floor_52_2026_08_12.

    Record
    2-2 (50%)
    Graded selections
    4
    Period
    2026-08-16 to 2026-08-19
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    59%
    Margin over break-even
    -9 points
    Units
    -0.32
    Return on stake
    -9.83%
    Methodology
    yrfi_floor_52_2026_08_12

    See every graded selection behind this record

  • MLB YRFI Published result

    MLB YRFI went 1-1 (50%) across 2 graded selections from 2026-08-05 to 2026-08-07, -0.28 units at -18.75% ROI. The prices taken required 57% to break even. Methodology: yrfi_v1_2026_08_05.

    Record
    1-1 (50%)
    Graded selections
    2
    Period
    2026-08-05 to 2026-08-07
    Break-even required by the prices taken
    57%
    Margin over break-even
    -7 points
    Units
    -0.28
    Return on stake
    -18.75%
    Methodology
    yrfi_v1_2026_08_05

    See every graded selection behind this record

Recently graded reports

Every published selection is recorded here, winning and losing alike.