Top 5 EV #4: ARI @ MIL — Chad Patrick Under 4.5 Pitcher Ks — Lost

Manny's Variety Picks published Chad Patrick Under 4.5 Pitcher Ks at -160 on 2026-04-28 in MLB. The selection was locked before the event started and graded against official results: it lost, settling -1.25 units.

The record

Selection

Chad Patrick Under 4.5 Pitcher Ks

Event

ARI @ MIL

Price published at

-160

Model win probability

71.6%

Result

lost

Profit / loss

-1.25 units

Published

2026-04-28

Graded

2026-05-01

What the price required

At -160, this selection had to win 61.5% of the time simply to break even — that is what the price itself demanded, before any view about the event. The model put it at 71.6%, 10.1 percentage points above that line — the reason it was published.

What the model was risking

The same number says this was expected to lose about 28 times in every 100. A selection priced this way is not a prediction that the event will happen; it is a judgement that the market was charging too little for the chance that it would. Whether that judgement paid is recorded above, and every other time it has been made is in the public ledger.

How this report was produced

A sport-specific model simulates the event to a win probability, which is compared with the live market price; the selection is locked before the event starts and graded against official final data. Full method on the methodology page.

The full record

This report is one entry in a permanent public ledger — winning and losing alike, nothing removed after the fact. Browse the complete graded record, the report archive, or MLB coverage on the MLB page.