MLB Play of the Day — NYM @ ARI — RL: New York Mets -1.5 — Won

Manny's Variety Picks published New York Mets -1.5 at -149 on 2026-05-08 in MLB. The selection was locked before the event started and graded against official results: it won, settling +1.01 units.

The record

Selection

New York Mets -1.5

Event

NYM @ ARI

Price published at

-149

Market open → close

-149 → +130

Closing line value

-16.4 percentage points

Model win probability

79.4%

Result

won

Profit / loss

+1.01 units

Published

2026-05-08

Graded

2026-08-06

What the price required

At -149, this selection had to win 59.8% of the time simply to break even — that is what the price itself demanded, before any view about the event. The model put it at 79.4%, 19.5 percentage points above that line — the reason it was published.

What the model was risking

The same number says this was expected to lose about 21 times in every 100. A selection priced this way is not a prediction that the event will happen; it is a judgement that the market was charging too little for the chance that it would. Whether that judgement paid is recorded above, and every other time it has been made is in the public ledger.

What the market did afterwards

This selection was taken at -149 and the market closed at +130, a closing line value of -16.4 percentage points. Closing line value measures whether the price beaten was better than the one the market settled on; it is the strongest available leading indicator that a model is pricing something the market had not yet.

How this report was produced

A sport-specific model simulates the event to a win probability, which is compared with the live market price; the selection is locked before the event starts and graded against official final data. Full method on the methodology page.

The full record

This report is one entry in a permanent public ledger — winning and losing alike, nothing removed after the fact. Browse the complete graded record, the report archive, or MLB coverage on the MLB page.