NBA Alt Total of the Day — Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Over 209.5 — Won

Manny's Variety Picks published Over 209.5 at -160 on 2026-05-11 in NBA. The selection was locked before the event started and graded against official results: it won, settling +0.94 units.

The record

Selection

Over 209.5

Event

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers

Price published at

-160

Market open → close

-160 → -115

Closing line value

-8.0 percentage points

Result

won

Profit / loss

+0.94 units

Published

2026-05-11

Graded

2026-05-12

What the price required

At -160, this selection had to win 61.5% of the time simply to break even — that is what the price itself demanded, before any view about the event.

What the market did afterwards

This selection was taken at -160 and the market closed at -115, a closing line value of -8.0 percentage points. Closing line value measures whether the price beaten was better than the one the market settled on; it is the strongest available leading indicator that a model is pricing something the market had not yet.

How this report was produced

A sport-specific model simulates the event to a win probability, which is compared with the live market price; the selection is locked before the event starts and graded against official final data. Full method on the methodology page.

The full record

This report is one entry in a permanent public ledger — winning and losing alike, nothing removed after the fact. Browse the complete graded record, the report archive, or NBA coverage on the NBA page.