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Six-on-five attack with an empty net

Pulling the Goalie Betting: How the Extra Attacker Moves NHL Lines

Six-on-five attack with an empty net

Pulling the goalie matters to bettors because it changes the final minutes of an NHL game in two directions at once. The trailing team gains a better chance of scoring, and it also gives the leading team a better chance at an empty-net goal. That second outcome decides many puck-line and total tickets. Below we explain what a goalie pull is, when teams do it, what the numbers say, and how each bet type reacts.

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TL;DR

  • A goalie pull swaps the goaltender for a sixth skater. It raises the trailing team’s scoring chances and the opponent’s empty-net chances.
  • Research on timing says teams should pull earlier than most coaches do. Coaches usually wait until the last minute or so.
  • An empty-net goal can turn a one-goal lead into a two-goal win. That is the classic backdoor cover on a -1.5 puck line, and it can push a game over its total.
  • Tied-game pulls and overtime pulls have their own standings rules, which affect motivation.
  • Treat the pull as one input. Confirm sportsbook settlement rules and your existing exposure before you react.

Table of Contents

What pulling the goalie means

Pulling the goalie means replacing the goaltender with an extra skater, usually a forward and occasionally a defenseman, so the team can attack with an advantage and risk an empty net. The practice is also called using the extra attacker.

The trade-off is simple. According to the NHL’s Seattle Kraken analytics feature, removing the goalie adds a sixth skater, which raises the chance of scoring but leaves the net unprotected and raises the opponent’s chance of an empty-net goal.

The same page cites research by Meghan Hall arguing that the risk-reward ratio favors pulling. A team gains a lot by potentially tying late, since that earns a standings point. It loses little by allowing another goal, because a loss is a loss whether it is by one goal or by two.

That logic is the foundation for everything a bettor needs to know. The trailing team is behaving rationally even when the pull looks desperate. The leading team will often get a clear shot at an open net. Your ticket is affected by both.

When teams pull the goalie

What coaches actually do

Coaches wait. Research by Asness and Brown, reported by Chicago Booth Review, observes that coaches usually pull the goalie only in the final minute or so. Their model suggests a much earlier schedule:

Deficit Model’s suggested pull time
One goal 5:40 left
Two goals 11:40 left
Three goals 17:40 left

The authors suggest coaches hold back because the decision is judged by reputation. A coach who pulls early and wins looks like a lucky gambler, while one who pulls early and loses is exposed to blame.

The habit has been shifting. The Kraken analytics page reports that the average time left when a team pulls its goalie while down one goal moved from 73 seconds in 2013-14 to 97 seconds in 2020-21, after a high of 106 seconds in 2019-20. Seattle coach Dave Hakstol is quoted on the same page describing a trend toward pulling earlier because teams have more success that way.

Average time remaining at goalie pulls

The page also cites Hall’s study showing that from 2013-14 through 2019-20, teams trailing in the final two minutes pulled the goalie 98% of the time. For betting, that means a trailing team in the last two minutes is almost always playing six on five. You can plan around it.

Pulls when the team is not trailing

A pull is not only for teams that are behind. A team may pull its goalie in a tied game near the end of regulation if a point matters, for example to stay alive for a playoff spot, a division title or home-ice advantage. There is also a rule for overtime. Since the 1999-2000 season, a team that pulls its goalie in overtime and then loses on an empty-net goal is charged with a regulation loss and does not keep the point it would normally get for an overtime loss. The exception is a goalie removed because of a delayed penalty against the other team.

The practical point: in a tied game, a pull signals that a team believes the standings gain is worth the risk. Late in the season, that tells you something about how much the game means to the club.

What the data show

Empty-net goals are a regular part of the NHL scoring picture, and they are becoming more common.

The trend is clear even if the sources cover different seasons. More empty-net goals mean more late goals that are not related to the normal flow of five-on-five hockey. If you build a total or a spread model from regular play, these goals sit outside it.

What this means for a one-goal game

A team trailing by one will often fail to tie and concede an empty-net goal. A team that does tie gets a point and a shot at more. Because the pull is nearly universal in the final two minutes, the leading team’s chance of an empty-net goal is part of nearly every one-goal game. When you price a favorite on the puck line, that is the mechanism that matters.

Trailing by two or more is a different matter. The earlier a team trails by a larger margin, the less likely the pull is to produce a comeback. Treat a two-goal deficit pull as a mostly lost cause, and one that makes an extra goal for the leader more likely than a comeback.

What this means for a one-goal game

How goalie pulls affect each bet type

Puck line

The pull is the main driver of the backdoor cover. An empty-net goal can turn a one-goal lead into a two-goal win, which is a backdoor cover for bettors laying -1.5. So a favorite that was ahead 3-2 for most of the third period can still cover if the opponent pulls and concedes into the empty net.

The reverse applies to the underdog at +1.5. If you hold the underdog, you are hoping that the leading team does not score into the empty net. The pull is the moment that your cover is most at risk, so a tight 2-1 game is less safe than the scoreboard suggests.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the cleanest of the three. A pull rarely changes who wins in the final minute, because most pulls fail to tie. For a bettor holding the leader, the pull is mostly good news. For a bettor holding the trailing team live, the price attached to a pull reflects a small chance of a tie that leads to overtime.

If you want to think about how live prices relate to your starting line, our guide to live betting anchored to your pre-game line covers a disciplined approach.

Totals

Empty-net goals add to the total. Over 2023-24, there were 446 of them out of 8,268 total goals, around 5.4% according to ProHockeyNews. That is a meaningful share of all scoring. When a total sits on a half-goal and the game is a one-goal contest in the third, an empty-net goal can decide the ticket.

Two habits follow from that:

  1. When you bet an over, a close game in the third period is a better situation than a blowout, because the pull is likely to occur.
  2. When you bet an under, a one-goal lead with a trailing team that will pull is a risk to your ticket, even if the game has been low scoring.

Player props

A pull changes who is on the ice. The trailing team’s top forwards and shooters get more ice time, and the leading team’s scorers get the chance at an empty-net goal. Anytime goal scorer and shots-on-goal props can be affected. Confirm how your sportsbook handles empty-net goals for prop settlement before you bet.

A short checklist before you react

A goalie pull is visible to everyone watching, so the market adjusts quickly. Before acting on it, work through these steps.

  1. Check the settlement rules. Sportsbooks differ on how they treat empty-net goals, overtime and shootouts in each market. Read the rules for your specific bet.
  2. Refresh the price. A price that looked good a moment ago may be stale. A lineup betting guide from The Wager Theorem makes the same point about prices going stale around late-breaking goalie information.
  3. Look at your correlated exposure. If you hold the favorite on the moneyline, the -1.5 and the over, one empty-net goal can move all three. Know how much of your risk sits on one event.
  4. Know the game’s context. A tied game late in a playoff race, or a team that needs two points, makes a pull more likely and sooner.

The pull is only one goalie variable. Who starts matters even more over the course of a season. If you are looking at games where the starter is not the usual one, see our walkthrough on backup goalie betting. Rest also matters, and our NHL back-to-backs rest score shows how to spot mispriced games when teams play on consecutive nights.

Timing is another piece. If you are weighing when to place a pre-game wager, read about the best time to bet. And if a one-goal game is the sort of spot you like, our guide to judging alternate lines walks through how to evaluate those prices in four steps.

Our perspective

We treat the goalie pull as a predictable late-game event, not a surprise. The evidence says teams pull almost every time they trail in the final two minutes, so a good model should expect it, not react to it.

That is how our sport-specific engines are designed to work. They run thousands of simulations, including late-game states, so the likelihood of empty-net goals is part of a projection and not an afterthought. A puck-line or total that ignores that part of the game is missing a piece of the price.

We also think bettors deserve a record they can check. Every pick we publish is graded in public and kept in a permanent archive, and you can review the NHL results and track record yourself. Across the picks we have tracked, we report a 63.5% win rate over more than 1,600 picks and a net return of 443.9 units. Those figures cover all sports, not only hockey.

Our advice on goalie pulls is simple. Know the rule, know the timing, and price the empty net into every one-goal game before you place the bet.

Manuel

Put the late-game math to work

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FAQ

When should a team pull its goalie?

Research by Asness and Brown suggests a team down one goal should pull with 5:40 left, down two with 11:40 left and down three with 17:40 left. In practice, coaches usually wait until the last minute or so. The average pull when down one goal was 97 seconds left in 2020-21, according to the NHL’s Kraken analytics page.

Does pulling the goalie help a +1.5 puck line bettor?

It can hurt as much as it helps. If the underdog is trailing by one and pulls its goalie, an empty-net goal makes the margin two and the +1.5 ticket loses. If the underdog ties or the leader fails to score into the empty net, the +1.5 holds. That is why a one-goal game late in the third is not as safe for the underdog as the score suggests.

What is a backdoor cover in hockey?

A backdoor cover happens when a late goal, often into an empty net, changes the margin so that a team covers the spread even though the game was decided earlier. Favorites laying -1.5 on the puck line benefit most. Sports Illustrated explains the concept in its betting terms guide.

Can a team pull its goalie if the game is tied?

Yes. A team may pull in a tied game late in regulation if a point matters for the playoffs, a division title or home-ice advantage. In overtime, a team that pulls and loses on an empty-net goal gets a regulation loss and forfeits the overtime-loss point, unless the goalie was removed for a delayed penalty against the other team.

Do empty-net goals count toward the total?

Yes, in general. They are goals in regulation and count toward most totals. Empty-net goals made up about 5.4% of all goals in the 2023-24 season. Check your sportsbook’s rules for any market-specific exceptions before you bet.

Sources